Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
35 Virginia Commonwealth 70.1%   10   24 - 10 14 - 4 24 - 10 14 - 4 +11.7      +4.5 70 +7.2 23 73.0 99 +9.3 60 +11.4 2
44 Saint Joseph's 100.0%   8   27 - 7 13 - 5 27 - 7 13 - 5 +10.7      +7.9 28 +2.8 102 71.9 131 +12.3 33 +8.9 4
58 Dayton 95.9%   8   25 - 7 14 - 4 25 - 7 14 - 4 +9.4      +1.8 126 +7.6 20 69.1 195 +12.1 36 +10.8 3
72 George Washington 5.6%   23 - 10 11 - 7 23 - 10 11 - 7 +7.8      +5.3 53 +2.4 110 67.0 254 +8.5 74 +6.7 5
83 St. Bonaventure 44.4%   22 - 8 14 - 4 22 - 8 14 - 4 +6.8      +6.0 43 +0.8 155 70.7 154 +8.8 66 +11.8 1
90 Rhode Island 0.0%   17 - 15 9 - 9 17 - 15 9 - 9 +6.2      +1.9 123 +4.3 65 63.7 320 +3.6 117 +3.5 7
103 Richmond 0.0%   16 - 16 7 - 11 16 - 16 7 - 11 +5.0      +6.4 39 -1.3 204 69.1 196 +3.7 116 +1.0 9
105 Davidson 0.1%   19 - 12 10 - 8 19 - 12 10 - 8 +4.9      +7.5 31 -2.6 239 74.2 83 +6.9 87 +5.6 6
148 Fordham 0.0%   16 - 13 8 - 10 16 - 13 8 - 10 +1.0      -0.7 187 +1.7 125 66.9 259 +1.5 143 +2.4 8
151 Duquesne 0.0%   15 - 16 6 - 12 15 - 16 6 - 12 +0.8      +1.4 141 -0.5 186 79.7 19 +0.8 154 -0.4 10
162 Massachusetts 0.0%   14 - 18 6 - 12 14 - 18 6 - 12 0.0      -1.5 204 +1.5 133 75.9 58 +1.1 150 -0.4 11
196 George Mason 0.0%   11 - 21 5 - 13 11 - 21 5 - 13 -2.1      -2.4 229 +0.3 170 69.9 180 -1.4 185 -1.3 12
211 Saint Louis 0.0%   11 - 21 5 - 13 11 - 21 5 - 13 -3.2      -4.9 294 +1.7 124 70.9 152 -2.7 206 -1.6 13
250 La Salle 0.0%   8 - 22 4 - 14 8 - 22 4 - 14 -5.4      -3.6 269 -1.8 218 66.2 275 -3.5 217 -3.2 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Virginia Commonwealth 1.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 4.0 100.0
Dayton 1.0 100.0
George Washington 5.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 1.0 100.0
Rhode Island 7.0 100.0
Richmond 9.0 100.0
Davidson 6.0 100.0
Fordham 8.0 100.0
Duquesne 10.0 100.0
Massachusetts 10.0 100.0
George Mason 12.0 100.0
Saint Louis 12.0 100.0
La Salle 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 14 - 4 100.0
Saint Joseph's 13 - 5 100.0
Dayton 14 - 4 100.0
George Washington 11 - 7 100.0
St. Bonaventure 14 - 4 100.0
Rhode Island 9 - 9 100.0
Richmond 7 - 11 100.0
Davidson 10 - 8 100.0
Fordham 8 - 10 100.0
Duquesne 6 - 12 100.0
Massachusetts 6 - 12 100.0
George Mason 5 - 13 100.0
Saint Louis 5 - 13 100.0
La Salle 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 100.0
Saint Joseph's
Dayton 100.0% 100.0
George Washington
St. Bonaventure 100.0% 100.0
Rhode Island
Richmond
Davidson
Fordham
Duquesne
Massachusetts
George Mason
Saint Louis
La Salle


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 70.1% 0.0% 70.1% 10   0.0 0.6 6.2 15.5 31.7 16.0 0.1 29.9 70.1%
Saint Joseph's 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 8   0.0 2.6 27.3 38.4 25.6 5.8 0.2
Dayton 95.9% 0.0% 95.9% 8   0.0 2.5 26.5 37.5 24.2 5.0 0.2 4.1 95.9%
George Washington 5.6% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0 4.3 1.2 0.0 94.4 5.6%
St. Bonaventure 44.4% 0.0% 44.4% 0.0 0.7 5.6 18.7 19.1 0.2 55.6 44.4%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Davidson 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 70.1% 10.7% 65.1% 32.2% 9.0% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Saint Joseph's 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 47.8% 10.5% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Dayton 95.9% 0.1% 95.9% 40.4% 7.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
George Washington 5.6% 5.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 44.4% 14.7% 35.0% 10.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.2 0.4 16.1 51.8 30.5 1.3
1st Round 100.0% 3.0 0.6 22.2 55.9 20.9 0.4
2nd Round 83.9% 1.3 16.1 44.1 32.3 7.0 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 26.3% 0.3 73.7 23.7 2.5 0.1
Elite Eight 9.2% 0.1 90.8 8.9 0.3
Final Four 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8 0.0
Final Game 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1